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2010 ASO 
 

The APEC CLIMATE CENTER
Climate Outlook for August-October 2010


BUSAN, 26 July 2010 - Synthesis of the latest model forecasts for August-October 2010 at the APEC Climate Center (APCC), located at Busan, Korea, indicates above normal rainfall over Southeast Asia adjoining eastern Australia and southern Polynesian Islands, equatorial Latin America, the Florida key region and the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Suppressed rainfall is predicted over the central to eastern Pacific and south east Pacific adjoining the southern South America. Above normal temperature is predicted over most of the Globe while below-normal temperature is expected in the central to eastern Pacific regions.



Current Climate Conditions

During the period from May through the first half of July 2010, anomalously warm conditions were found over the Arctic, Eastern Europe, Middle East, central Asia, eastern Eurasia, Alaska, and eastern North America. Warm anomalies were also observed over northwestern and southeastern parts of Africa, central India and the north-to-central part of Brazil. On the other hand, cold anomalies were observed over a few places of African continent, Western Europe, western Russia, Australia, western USA, south part of South America and the eastern Pacific Ocean. The monthly patterns of May and June are similar to the seasonal one. In the first half of July, there was warm condition in northern Australia while the climate condition in most of Africa, Indian subcontinent and the eastern Pacific Ocean was colder than normal.



The western equatorial Indian Ocean, Indonesia adjoining northern Australia, and equatorial Latin America have experienced wet conditions form May through the first half of July. In contrast, it was drier than normal in western Kazakhstan, Indochina, the Philippines, southern USA, most of South America, and the eastern tropical and south tropical Pacific Oceans. The monthly of pattern of May is similar to the seasonal one. In June, dry conditions were observed in Kazakhstan, Mongolia adjoining northern China and North Korea while wet condition was observed in South China. In the first half of July, the region from eastern China to the southern part of Japan, the maritime component of South Asia adjoining north and east parts of Australia, and tropical Latin America experienced wetter than normal condition while Europe, central Asia, eastern Siberia, north Pacific and southern South America experienced drier-than normal condition. The Indian summer monsoon rainfall, since June, is 15% below normal.

The sea surface temperature and sub-surface anomalies in the central to eastern tropical Pacific have been colder than normal, suggesting that La Nina-like conditions are under development.




Forecast

Seasonal Temperature Outlook:

The APCC forecast for August-October 2010 indicates persistent warm conditions over most of the Globe, including Africa, Eurasia, North America and Maritime Continent adjoining northern Australia and Polynesian regions, and most of the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. Below-normal temperature is expected in the central to eastern Pacific. The central Australia, the western edge of North America, and northern South America may experience slightly colder-than-normal conditions. (The monthly pattern of individual months of August, September and October are similar to the seasonal one.)



Seasonal Precipitation Outlook:

There is a strong chance of above normal rainfall in Southeast Asia adjoining eastern Australia and southern Polynesian Islands, equatorial Latin America, the Florida key region and the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Rainfall in the Middle East, Pakistan, southern India and eastern China adjacent North Korea may also be slightly above normal. Suppressed rainfall is expected in central to eastern Pacific and eastern south Pacific adjoining the southern South America. Suppressed precipitation is also forecasted over equatorial western African continent, the central Indian Ocean, western tip of Canada to Alaska, and the central western part of US and the northern part of Mexico (The monthly pattern of individual months of August, September, and October are similar to the seasonal pattern.)



Outlook released on 26 July, 2010

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