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The APEC CLIMATE CENTER
Climate Outlook for December 2008-February 2009
BUSAN, 24 November, 2008 - Synthesis of the latest computer model forecasts for December 2008-February 2009 at the APEC Climate Center (APCC), located in Busan, Korea, predicts colder than normal conditions in northwest North America, and the opposite signal in southern areas as well as in some parts of the eastern seaboard. The anomalously warm and dry conditions may continue in the Middle East.
Current Climate Conditions
DDuring the period from September through the second week of November, anomalously warm or near-normal temperatures persisted in most land regions around the globe except in the following few during the specified sub-periods: mid-latitude west Asia in September, the Alaskan region during October, the Middle East, northwest portions of Africa, central Russia, and west Australia in November. Of note also is that most of tropical-to-midlatitude western South America also experienced anomalously cold temperatures during different months, with the most dominant signal in Venezuela. Most of the nations in South America also received near-normal to below normal rainfall except Equador and equatorial Brazil. In general, near-normal to below normal rainfall was observed around the globe, except in most of Indochina, parts of the Philippines, eastern Indonesia and adjoining Papua New Guinea, and equatorial North America. Australia and Japan seem to have moved from a deficit rainfall condition to a surplus.
Forecast
The APCC forecast for December 2008-February 2009 indicates continuing near neutral conditions in the tropical Pacific.A horse-shoe shaped structure, centered in the tropical western Pacific can be seen in the anomalies of temperature as well as rainfall, extending from the Northwest Pacific through Philippines, Indochina, most of Indonesia and Malaysia, Papua New Guinea and adjoining Polynesian islands; the Indonesian region adjoining the Indian Ocean may, on the other hand, suffer from less than normal rainfall. There is a chance that the northeast Australian continent may receive more than normal rainfall; the region extending from its northwest through New Zealand may experience higher than normal temperatures.
The southern tip of South America may experience slightly dry and cold conditions as compared to normal, while the subtropics may see slightly warmer and drier than normal conditions. Anomalously warm and wet conditions are forecast for the equatorial Americas. Further north, subtropical North America is expected to receive less than normal rainfall with warmer-than-normal conditions. While colder than normal conditions in northwest North America have been predicted, the opposite signal is expected in southern areas and along some of the eastern seaboard.
There is a chance that northeast East Asia may experience slightly warmer than normal conditions. The Middle East is likely to experience continuing warm and dry conditions. A similar signature is also expected in the horn of Africa as well as equatorial Africa. Northwest Europe may experience a modestly mild winter while the Nordic region may receive slightly higher than normal rainfall.
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