News & Event  |  Site Map  |   Contact Us  |  Login  |
 
 


The APEC CLIMATE CENTER
Climate Outlook for July-September 2010


BUSAN, 25 June 2010 - Synthesis of the latest model forecasts for July-September 2010 at the APEC Climate Center (APCC), located at Busan, Korea, indicates above normal rainfall over Southeast Asia, southern Polynesian Islands, equatorial Latin America, the Florida key region and tropical Atlantic Ocean. Suppressed rainfall is predicted over the central Pacific and south east Pacific adjoining the southern South America. Above normal temperature is predicted over most of the Globe, and most of Indian and Atlantic Ocean while below-normal temperature is expected in central Pacific and south east Pacific adjoining the southern South America.



Current Climate Conditions

During the period from April through the first half of June 2010, anomalously warm conditions were found over the Arctic, most of Africa, the wide region from the eastern part of Europe to western Asia, the central part of Siberia, and the region throughout Alaska – Canada- Greenland, eastern USA, and northern South America. Cold anomalies were observed over the western part of Europe, the region from East Asia to western USA, Labrador Sea, northeastern Australia, and south east Pacific adjoining the southern South America. Form April to the first half of June, there were cold conditions over East Asia adjoining most of Siberia, and north east Pacific adjacent the west North America, south east Pacific adjoining south part of South America. The climate condition in most of Australia has been warmer than normal in April, and changed into cold condition in May and the first half of June.



The west Equatorial Indian Ocean, maritime component of Southeast Asia adjoining northern Australia, northwest part of USA, and equatorial Latin America have experienced wet conditions form April through the first half of June. In contrast, it was drier than normal in equatorial and some locations in the north part of Africa, from northern India to central Asia, the region from Thailand to the Philippines, southern Polynesian Islands, southwestern Australia, northern Canada, southern USA adjacent Mexico, and most of South America. The monthly features were varying. In April, rainfall anomalies were located in two strips over the Pacific Ocean Basin, with wet conditions from the central to eastern equatorial region and dry conditions just south of this strip. Dry conditions were also observed from Madagascar to the southern Indian Ocean, and also the north central Pacific. The monthly pattern of May was similar to the seasonal pattern. There were dry conditions in the Philippines and southern Polynesian Islands while wet condition in Indonesia and northern Australia. Wet conditions were also observed over the Indian Ocean, South China Sea through the northern part of US in the first half of June.

The near-normal sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific indicate continuing ENSO-neutral conditions.




Forecast

Seasonal Temperature Outlook:

The APCC forecast for July-September 2010 indicates persistent warm conditions over most of the Globe, including Eurasia (except Pakistan adjoining northwestern India), Africa, the major region of America continent (except south part of South America), Australasia, and most of Indian and Atlantic Ocean (except Labrador Sea). Below-normal temperature is expected in central Pacific and south east Pacific adjoining the southern South America. (The monthly pattern of individual months of July, August and September are similar to the seasonal one.)



Seasonal Precipitation Outlook:

There is a strong chance of above normal rainfall eastern China adjoining North Korea, Southeast Asia (except the Philippines), southern Polynesian Islands, equatorial Latin America, the Florida key region and the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The monsoon over portions of the Indian subcontinent may also be slightly above normal. Suppressed rainfall is expected in the Philippines, Japan, the central Pacific and south east Pacific adjoining the southern South America. Suppressed precipitation is also forecasted over a few places over equatorial African continent, the western Indian Ocean, the western part of Australia, Alaska, the southwest part of North America and Labrador Sea. (The monthly pattern of individual months of July, August and September are similar to the seasonal pattern.)



Outlook released on 25 June, 2010

MONTH
VARIABLE
REGION
MONTH
VARIABLE
REGION
VARIABLE
TYPE
MONTH
MODEL
REGION