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2010 JJASON 
 

The APEC CLIMATE CENTER
Experimental1 Outlook for Jun-Nov 2010
based on 6-month 1-tier MME Forecasts2


Highlights

- Slightly below (above) normal rainfall expected in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, southwestern Australian continent and the central part of South America (the eastern part of Australian continent including South Pacific Ocean, most of the maritime continent, southern part of India and adjoining region, tropical Central America) during JJA. During SON, slightly wet conditions likely in the eastern Australian continent, most of the maritime continents, tropical Central America, and the northern part of South America.
- Slightly colder (warmer) than normal condition expected in the vicinity of Hawaiian Islands and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (southern part of mainland Southeast Asia and maritime continents excluding New Guinea Island, Caribbean Islands) during JJASON.

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1The experimental 6-month APCC forecast outlook, as the name indicates, is currently under development, and does not replace the operational rolling monthly 3-month forecast.
2with initial conditions of May 2010, providing a forecast with lead time of 1-6 months.



Jun-Aug 2010 forecast

The APCC 6-month forecast for the June-August, 2010 indicates the current ENSO signal maintains neutral conditions in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. However, there is a chance that it will be developing to La Ni鎙 conditions. The eastern part of Australian continent including South Pacific Ocean, most of maritime continents excluding a few areas of Indonesia, tropical Central America, southern and northern part of the Indian subcontinent are likely to experience slightly wetter than normal conditions. Anomalous dry conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the southwestern Australian continent and the central part of South America are expected. It is likely that cold signals occur in the vicinity of Hawaiian Islands and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, the Indian subcontinent and northern part of Africa. Most part of mainland Southeast Asia and maritime continents, Caribbean Islands and the western tropical Africa may experience anomalously warmer than normal conditions.




Sep-Nov 2010 forecast

During the period of September-November 2010, the SST forecast in tropical Pacific Ocean indicates further developed signals as compared with JJA season; a weak La Niña-like signal is predicted. The central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean may experience anomalously dry and cold conditions. It is likely to experience slightly wetter than normal conditions in the eastern Australian continent, most of the maritime continents, tropical Central America, and the northern part of South America. Anomalous warm conditions are expected over the southern portion of mainland Southeast Asia, maritime continents excluding New Guinea Island. There is a strong chance that cold condition may prevail over the northeastern part of Australia continent, the Japanese archipelago, Kazakhstan, the northwestern portion of South America including several areas of Central America, the southeastern part of Brazil and some region over Africa. The Caribbean Islands and western Atlantic Ocean may experience above normal rainfall and temperature.



Outlook released on 14 June, 2010

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