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The APEC CLIMATE CENTER
Experimental1 Outlook for Mar-Aug 2010
based on 6-month 1-tier MME Forecasts2


Highlights

- Anomalously dryer (wetter) than normal conditions expected in southern Indian subcontinent, Philippine islands (maritime continents, southeastern China and Korean Peninsula) during MAM. During JJA, slightly wet conditions likely in mainland of Southeast Asia, Philippine islands and the southeastern Australian continent.
- Slightly warmer (colder) than normal condition expected in maritime continents, mainland of Southeast Asia, southern Indian subcontinent, Central America and southeastern Africa (Japanese archipelago, eastern United States, Caspian Sea basin and most of Europe along with the northwestern portion of Africa) during MAMJJA.

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1The experimental 6-month APCC forecast outlook, as the name indicates, is currently under development, and does not replace the operational rolling monthly 3-month forecast.
2with initial conditions of February 2010, providing a forecast with lead time of 1-6 months.



Mar-May 2010 forecast

The APCC 1-6 month lead coupled MME prediction indicates that El Ni隳 signal decays in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean during the period of March to May 2010. The central Australian continent, most of maritime continents, southeastern China and Korean Peninsula are likely to experience slightly wetter than normal conditions. Anomalously dry conditions over the western North Pacific Ocean along with the Philippine islands are expected. The southern Indian subcontinent, most part of mainland Southeast Asia including the Bay of Bengal are likely to experience below normal rainfall with slightly warm condition. It is likely that cold signals occur in the southern United States, Mexico, the Caspian Sea basin, the northwestern Africa, most of Europe and the western Australian continent. The northern portion of Brazil and western Canada may experience anomalously warmer than normal conditions.




Jun-Aug 2010 forecast

The SST forecast for the period of June-August 2010 indicates further weakened signals in tropical Pacific as compared with MAM season. Most of the maritime continents and northeastern China may experience anomalously dry and warm conditions. The southeastern portion of the Australian continent, mainland Southeast Asia may experience above normal rainfall. Anomalous warm conditions are expected over the Tasman Sea between Australia and New Zealand and western North Pacific. There is a strong chance that it will be cold in northern regions of the Japanese archipelago, eastern Mongolia, the Caspian Sea basin, most of Europe and the northwestern Africa. It is likely to experience slightly warmer than normal conditions in the southern Indian subcontinent, most part of mainland Southeast Asia, Mexico, and the southeastern portion of Africa.



Outlook released on 17 March, 2010

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