The APEC CLIMATE CENTER
Experimental1 Outlook for Mar-Aug 2010
based on 6-month 1-tier MME Forecasts2
Highlights
- Anomalously dryer (wetter) than normal conditions expected in southern Indian subcontinent, Philippine islands (maritime continents, southeastern China and Korean Peninsula) during MAM. During JJA, slightly wet conditions likely in mainland of Southeast Asia, Philippine islands and the southeastern Australian continent.
- Slightly warmer (colder) than normal condition expected in maritime continents, mainland of Southeast Asia, southern Indian subcontinent, Central America and southeastern Africa (Japanese archipelago, eastern United States, Caspian Sea basin and most of Europe along with the northwestern portion of Africa) during MAMJJA.
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1The experimental 6-month APCC forecast outlook, as the name indicates, is currently under development, and does not replace the operational rolling monthly 3-month forecast.
2with initial conditions of February 2010, providing a forecast with lead time of 1-6 months.
Mar-May 2010 forecast
The APCC 1-6 month lead coupled MME prediction indicates that El Ni隳 signal decays in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean during the period of March to May 2010. The central Australian continent, most of maritime continents, southeastern China and Korean Peninsula are likely to experience slightly wetter than normal conditions. Anomalously dry conditions over the western North Pacific Ocean along with the Philippine islands are expected. The southern Indian subcontinent, most part of mainland Southeast Asia including the Bay of Bengal are likely to experience below normal rainfall with slightly warm condition. It is likely that cold signals occur in the southern United States, Mexico, the Caspian Sea basin, the northwestern Africa, most of Europe and the western Australian continent. The northern portion of Brazil and western Canada may experience anomalously warmer than normal conditions.