The APEC CLIMATE CENTER
ENSO and IOD¹ forecast for Mar-Aug 2010
based on 6-month 1-tier MME Forecasts²

Highlights

- Continuously warm condition in central tropical Pacific through May 2010

ENSO and IOD forecast outlook

The APCC 6-month ENSO forecast, based on MME predictions³ using the individual forecasts from 6 coupled models⁴ for the March-August 2010 indicates decay of the El Nino event across the tropical Pacific for the period of March through June. During the period of June to August of 2010, the situation in the tropical Pacific will be kept in near-neutral condition (see Figs. 1.1, 1.3). There are no predicted IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole Index⁵, see Fig. 1.2) signals during March-May, 2010, the typical period when the events start growing. It is likely to experience slightly warm condition in the Indian Ocean (see Fig. 1.3). The hindcast skills are provided in Figure 2.1 and 2.2.

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¹ SSTA difference between the tropical western Indian Ocean (10°S-10°N, 50°-70°E) and the tropical southeastern Indian Ocean (10°S-0°, 90°-110°E).
² with initial conditions of February 2010, providing a forecast with lead time of 1-6 months.
³Two MME methods, namely, Simple composite as well as probabilistic method, have been employed.
⁴APCC 6-month climate forecasts are based on 1-tier predictions from 6 institutions in the APEC region, and the hindcast skill are for the period 1983-2005. The constituent models are APCC’s CCSM3, BOM’s POAMA, NCEP, SINTEX-F, SNU and UH - the last three model predictions are the courtesy of CliPAS (Climate Prediction and its Application to Society).
⁵SSTA difference between the tropical western Indian Ocean (10°S-10°N, 50°-70°E) and the tropical southeastern Indian Ocean (10°S-0°, 90°-110°E).