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Cooperative Research

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Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, Korea

July 30, 2013
to July 30, 2018

Development of Advanced Techniques in Combined Inland-River Systems for Reducing Urban Inundation [Ongoing]

Overview

Urban flooding is a serious issue that poses a threat to infrastructure, the economy, and human security in the Asia-Pacific region. Floods are one of the most frequently occurring natural disasters globally; in 2010, floods affected 178 million people and caused losses of over $40 billion (Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery). Increases in urban populations and in the occurrence of extreme climate events will only serve to exacerbate the damages caused by urban inundation.

 

A total of 10 organizations are participating in this project, including the APEC Climate Center. The project is funded by the Korean Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transport and led by the University of Seoul. APCC’s role is to conduct a study on "The Development of an Atmospheric Model-Based Rainfall and Flood Forecasting System for Real-Time Flood Alerts in Urban Areas" under sub-project #1, which will blend climate science, satellite observation, and water resources.

 

Project Sub-Studies and Participating Institutions

 

Sub-Project #1: The development of advanced techniques in combined inland-river systems for urban flood risk management and flood forecasting

   - Participating institutions: Chonbuk National University (CNU), APEC Climate Center (APCC), Sungkyunkwan University (SKKU), University of Seoul (UOS)

 

Sub-Project #2: The development of advanced techniques in combined inland-river drainage systems for improved hydraulic structures design

   - Participating institutions: Korea Institute of Construction Technology (KICT), Inje University (INJEU), Kyonggi University (KGU)

 

Sub-Project #3: The development of optimal operation techniques in combined inland-river drainage systems

   - Participating institutions: Hanbat National University (HNU), Sun Moon University (SMU), and Korea University (KU)

University of Hawaii, U.S.A.

June 01, 2011
to May 31, 2015

Development of an APCC Operational ISO MME System and Investigation of Arctic and High-latitude Influences on the East Asian Climate [Ongoing]

Overview

It has been demonstated that the Arctic/high-latitude influences on the East Asian winter climate are becoming more important, considering that climate change, either by anthropogenic or by natural forcing, lead to the largest changes in the Arctic, due to various climate feedbacks. In this regard, this research study will investigate the dynamical mechanisms of Arctic and high-latitude influences on the East Asian winter weather/climate and estimate the impacts of associated changes in East Asian winter monsoon/cold surges on the weather/climate and socioeconomic human activities in East Asia and Korea.

 

To improve the capability of seasonal climate prediction at APCC, the study will contribute to the development of a land-initialization scheme at APCC, based on inputs from datasets available from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS). The University of Hawaii will continue to deliver three additional coupled models' long-lead forecast outputs four times a year in order to enhance the operational MME forecast of APCC.

National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction, Taiwan

June 15, 2011
to December 31, 2014

Pilot Study on Early Warning and Risk Assessment of Drought Disasters [Ongoing]

Overview

The project will develop and test new tools for drought prediction based on dynamical-statistical forecast results. The final products for this project will be applicable for the water resources field, especially the area of drought. The goals  of the project are  to (1) investigate the mechanisms of drought occurring in Taiwan, (2) develop drought prediction tools based on APCC seasonal forecast results, and  (3) establish an early warning system for drought, which synthesizes meteorological analysis, downscaled results, vulnerability-risk maps, and suggestions for policy makers.

 

1st Phase (June 15, 2011 to December 31, 2012)

 -  Drought Events Analysis and Large-Scale Predictors Test

 -  Statistical Downscaling Scheme Development and Evaluation

2nd Phase (January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2013)

 - Drought Vulnerability-Risk Maps Composition

3rd Phase (January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2014)

 - Drought Early-Warning System Development

Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research

August 01, 2012
to August 01, 2014

Toward a Fire and Haze Early Warning System for Southeast Asia [Ongoing]

Overview

Smoke haze from forest fires is among Southeast Asia’s most serious environmental problems and there is a clear need for a fire and haze early warning system (EWS) for the region. Research has led to a concrete understanding of the human and climatic causes of these forest fires. However, measures to prevent these fires and mitigate their impacts remains limited by the absence of long-lead EWSs. The project builds upon current fire danger rating systems by providing forecasts at a longer lead-time, a time scale that is more relevant and useable for decision-makers.

 

The objectives of the project are to (1) assess forecast skill and downscale seasonal forecasts over fire-prone regions in Southeast Asia, (2) develop new fire management decision triggers based on seasonal forecasts, (3) create a prototype fire danger early warning system for Southeast Asia, (4) formulate guidelines on integrating advance climate information into the standard operating procedures of fire management agencies, and (5) train stakeholders on understanding seasonal forecasts, downscaling, and the early warning system prototype.

 

In 2012, project activity began with a kick-off meeting of all collaborators. An assessment of forecast skill over fire-prone regions in Southeast Asia was performed and both dynamic and statistical downscaling studies have been initiated. Further downscaling experiments and fieldwork and interviews with resource managers will be conducted in 2013, culminating with the development of the prototype EWS and training workshop.

 

This project is funded by the Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research. The collaborators for the project are from Columbia University (USA), University of Aizu (Japan), Malaysian Meteorological Department (Malaysia),  National Institute of Aeronautics and Space (Indonesia), Ministry of Forestry (Indonesia), Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (Indonesia), and ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (Singapore)

Cambodian Agricultural Research and Development Institute, Cambodia

April 01, 2013
to March 31, 2014

Assessing Rice Productivity and Adaptation Strategies for Southeast Asia under Climate Change through Multi-Scale Crop Modeling [Ongoing]

Overview

Climate and agriculture are inextricably linked, as climate and weather conditions are key factors in agricultural productivity. Future projections of climate change predict rising temperatures, elevated CO2, and altered precipitation patterns, which will have major impacts on the agricultural sector. These atmospheric changes may detrimentally affect potential rice production capacity in Cambodia. The purpose of the project is to estimate potential rice production capacity and provide adaptation strategies, based on high-quality climate information, for the agriculture sector in Cambodia to more effectively cope with climate change.

 

The Southeast Asian region is the most vulnerable to climate change impacts within the Asia-Pacific region. In Cambodia, in particular, the agricultural sector is a vital industry, which accounts for more than 30% of the GDP and supports 80% of the population who live in rural areas of the country. The project outcomes are expected to help the Cambodian Royal Government define national and provincial level policy for adapting to climate change for the agricultural sector and inform better preparation and response to climate stressors, such as drought, shifting precipitation, and water availability.

Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, Republic of Korea

August 01, 2012
to May 01, 2013

Development of a Tropical Cyclone Prediction System Using the APCC Multi-Model Ensemble and Assessment of Its Predictability [Completed]

Overview

This study aimed to develop a seasonal prediction system for tropical cyclone (TC) activity by using the APEC Climate Center (APCC)'s multi-model ensemble (MME) prediction information. The tourism industry, aquaculture industry, typhoon-affected infrastructure, and shipping and businesses around the western North Pacific can benefit from these seasonal tropical cyclone predictions.

 

Two prediction systems were developed from the study, one is based on a hybrid prediction method that combines dynamical and statistical predictions and the other employs a dynamical prediction method using a high-resolution global climate model. The statistical-dynamical hybrid prediction system performed quite well in forecasting seasonal tropical cyclone activity (i.e., Accumulated Cyclone Energy, number of typhoons, and number of tropical storms), and, to some extent, the system showed better performance compared to other international operational tropical cyclone forecasts centers. APCC will continue investigation into the reliability and feasibility of the developed system for operational purposes.

 

Once further in-depth studies are conducted and the system is validated, APCC will produce seasonal tropical cyclone forecast outlooks, which will be available on our website. The outlook will likely consist of information such as: 1) a statement of the prevailing global climatic conditions, 2) some relevant statistical information, and 3) a prediction of the frequency and pattern of cyclones in the coming season.

University of Aizu, Japan

June 01, 2011
to March 31, 2012

Extending APEC Climate Center Seasonal Forecast and Climate Adaptation Products for Improved Societal Applications [Completed]

Overview

APCC multi-model forecasts provide an invaluable resource for mitigating the adverse socioeconomic impacts of extreme weather and climate events. However, multi-disciplinary applications of climate forecasts generaly require detailed spatio-temporal information,beyond the global and long-lead, albeit coarse resolution, climate predictions that are compiled and produced by the Center. In order to improve utilization of APCC products, this project conducted research to evaluate the ability of multi-model forecasts to better predict extreme climate events, for instance intense droughts in East and South Asia. The researh was based on the existing climate re-forecast produced by APCC, combined with dynamical downscaling techniques that refined the forecast information to appropriate spatial and temporal resolutions.

 

APCC also acts as a hub for climate data and related information, with open access to APEC member economies. The APCC data repository is used by a variety of end-users from different application sectors (agriculture, energy etc.) to produce different studies.

 

The University of Aizu is renowned for its superior Information Communication Technologies (ICT) related education and research. Based on its ICT research and development, it was chosen to enhance the usability of APCC's data repositories, by making it easier and more intuitive for various end-users to access data and by enhancing data post-processing functionality.

Kyungnam University, Republic of Korea

July 28, 2011
to March 15, 2012

A Study for Improving the Utilization of Weather and Climate Information [Completed]

Overview

As the occurence of unusual weather phenomena continues to increase, the importance of weather and climate information for the general public and industry has also grown. Primary weather and climate information can offer significant value to industry, services, and the public sector. However, secondary weather and climate information, namely refined data derived from primary weather and climate information, which is better suited to meet the needs of individual consumers, remains insufficient.

 

In this regard, this research project comprehensively examined the delivery and utilization of weather and climate information by various interest groups. By examining the strategic planning and decision making processes which create the demand for weather and climate information, an appropriate plan for the development of improved weather and climate information services was suggested.

 

Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Japan

April 16, 2009
to March 31, 2012

Application of Seasonal Forecasts to Predict Electricity Demand in Japan [Completed]

Overview 

APCC issues consecutive, rolling 3-month and seasonal operational forecasts using the most expansive Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) system in the world. Utilizing the state-of-the-art MME climate forecasts of APCC, CRIEPI will establish a reliable prediction system for electricity demand in Japan. APCC and CRIEPI scientists conducted collaborative research on the application of seasonal forecasts and downscaling products of APCC. 

 

The research topics included:
  - The development of 6-month deterministic and probabilistic forecasts based on downscaling methods by APCC and verification of the seasonal forecasts for select Japanese stations by APCC and CRIEPI
  - Verification of experimental electricity demand, predicted by CRIEPI
  - Continuous provision of station-level climate prediction products for Japanese stations, from APCC to CRIEPI

Korean Association for Housing Policy Studies, Republic of Korea

April 18, 2011
to December 20, 2011

Climate Change and Cities [Completed]

Overview

As one of the main sources of CO2 emissions, cities and urban environments are one of the primary drivers of climate change. The progress of urbanization has further increased CO2 emissions. While the greenhouse gas emissions from industrial activities are a common target for reductions, the rising emissions from the urban demand for energy services, for example, lighting, heating and air conditioning, use of electronic goods and home appliances, and transportation are increasing.

 

On the other hand, cities are at high risk of the damaging effects of climate change. Climate change threatens city infrastructures and quality of life for urban residents. Increased temperatures are likely to increase the demand for energy used for cooling, which can cause a vicious cycle of increasing CO2 emissions.

 

Accordingly, the research focused on the relationships between climate change and cities and drew a strategic plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to minimize the disaster risks and damages from climate change. This research will contribute to the establishment of urban policies to more effectively cope with climate change.