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Climate Outlook for September 2015 - February 2016

 

BUSAN, 25 August 2015 – Synthesis of the latest model forecasts for September 2015 to February 2016 (SONDJF) at the APEC Climate Center (APCC), located at Busan, Korea, indicates persistent positive temperature anomaly across the tropical Pacific consistent with the strengthening El Niño. The forecasts for SON 2015 show the positive temperature anomalies to prevail over the globe. Above normal rainfalls are highly probable in the equatorial Pacific, while below normal precipitation is expected over the maritime continent and adjacent seas, Central and northern South Americas. The forecasts for DJF 2015/16 suggest persistence of the El Niño episode with above-normal rainfall in the equatorial Pacific and persisted dry conditions over the maritime continent Central and northern South Americas.

 

 

 

Temperature and Precipitation Outlook:

 

1.       Forecast for September-November 2015

 

The APCC forecast indicates that the positive temperature anomalies will prevail over much of the globe. Strongly enhanced probability for above normal temperature is predicted for the eastern and central tropical Pacific, northern South America and the South Atlantic, the tropical North Atlantic, Africa and the Indian Ocean, southern Asia. Enhanced probability for above normal temperature is predicted for North America and Australia. Meanwhile a warm tendency is expected for Eurasia. Below normal temperature is highly probable over the northern North Atlantic, Weddell Sea, tropical and subtropical South Pacific. Strongly enhanced probability for above normal precipitation is predicted for the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Most likely category is above normal for precipitation over the eastern North Pacific and southern North America, extratropical South America, south-western Asia, most of the Indian and southern oceans. Strongly enhanced probability for below normal precipitation is predicted for the maritime continent and adjacent seas, Central and northern South America. Below normal precipitation is also probable over the tropical Atlantic, tropical South Pacific, region around southern tip of South America.

Current Climate Conditions_img

Current Climate Conditions_img

 

2.       Forecast for December 2015 - February 2016

 

The wide spread positive temperature anomalies predicted for SON are expected to persist. Above normal temperature is highly probable over the tropical Pacific and eastern Pacific, northern North and Southern Americas, tropical and subtropical Atlantic, Africa, Indian ocean and Australia. Probability for above normal temperature is slightly enhanced over western Eurasia and no forecast signal for eastern Eurasia. Enhanced probability for below normal temperature is predicted for the northern North Atlantic, southern North America, central North and South Pacific. Probability of above normal precipitation is strongly enhanced for the equatorial Pacific and eastern subtropical North Atlantic. Above normal precipitation is also expected from southern Europe, Central to East Asia, the southern Indian ocean, eastern North Pacific, southern North America, and Canadian Archipelago. Strongly enhanced probability for below normal precipitation is predicted for the tropical and subtropical North and South Pacific, Amazonia and equatorial Atlantic. Probability for below normal precipitation is enhanced for the northern North Atlantic, southern Africa, Australia, Pacific coast of South America.

 

Current Climate Conditions_img

Current Climate Conditions_img

Deterministic MME Forecast

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MONTH VARIABLE REGION

Probabilistic MME Forecast

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Individual Model Predictions

Deterministic Forecast

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MONTH VARIABLE REGION MODEL