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Monthly Outlook

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Climate Outlook for March - August 2015

 

BUSAN, 25 February 2015 – Synthesis of the latest model forecasts for March to August 2015 (MAMJJA) at the APEC Climate Center (APCC), located at Busan, Korea, indicates persistent positive anomaly across the tropical Pacific consistent with the weak El Niño. The forecasts for MAM 2015 show the positive temperature anomalies to prevail in the northern Hemisphere. Positive rainfall anomalies are expected in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, while negative anomalies prevailing over the maritime continent. The forecasts for JJA 2015 suggest persistence of the weak El Niño conditions with above-normal rainfall in the equatorial Central Pacific. Dry conditions may persist over the maritime continent and Central America.

 

 

 

Temperature and Precipitation Outlook:

 

1.       Forecast for March-May 2015

 

The APCC forecast indicates that the positive temperature anomalies will prevail over the globe, with the strongest anomalies being expected over the Arctic, mid-latitude Eurasia and the western North Pacific. Negative temperature anomalies are expected in the subtropical western North Pacific, eastern North Atlantic and along the Antarctic coast. Above normal precipitation is expected in the central equatorial Pacific, eastern North Pacific, mid-latitude Eurasia, western North Atlantic and tropical Africa. Below normal precipitation is expected over the Maritime Continent and western North Pacific, eastern South Pacific, equatorial Atlantic and northern South America.

Current Climate Conditions_img

Current Climate Conditions_img

 

2.       Forecast for June - August 2015

 

The wide spread positive temperature anomalies are expected to persist into the boreal summer 2015. The highest temperature anomalies are expected over North Eurasia, the tropical and eastern extratropical Pacific, Indian ocean, southern Pacific, and North Atlantic. The negative temperature anomalies are expected to remain along the Antarctic coast. Above normal precipitation is expected in the eastern equatorial Pacific, east and south-east Asia. Below normal precipitation is expected to persist over the maritime continent, Central America and equatorial Atlantic. 

 

Current Climate Conditions_img

Current Climate Conditions_img

Deterministic MME Forecast

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MONTH VARIABLE REGION

Probabilistic MME Forecast

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MONTH VARIABLE REGION

Individual Model Predictions

Deterministic Forecast

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MONTH VARIABLE REGION MODEL