Climate Outlook for December 2014 - May 2015
BUSAN, 26 November 2014 – Synthesis of the latest model forecasts for December 2014 to May 2015 (DJFMAM) at the APEC Climate Center (APCC), located at Busan, Korea, indicates warming across the tropical Pacific consistent with the development of El Niño, likely to produce anomalously warm and dry impacts over many regions throughout the world. The forecasts for DJF 2014/15 show an anomalously warm pattern persisting in the tropical/subtropical Pacific consistent with anomalously wet conditions. Anomalously dry conditions are expected over the Maritime Continent possibly affecting neighboring northern tip of Australia. Much of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean is also expected to receive below-normal rainfall. The forecasts for MAM 2015 suggest persistence of El Niño conditions with above-normal rainfall in the equatorial Central Pacific. Dry conditions may persist in the northern parts of South America, as well as in southern Melanesia. The subtropical West Pacific is expected to be anomalously dry during boreal spring 2015.
Temperature and Precipitation Outlook:
1. Forecast for December 2014-February 2015
The APCC forecast indicates that high probabilities of above-normal temperature and rainfall are expected in the equatorial and western tropical Pacific, directly affecting northern parts of Melanesia. On the other hand, anomalously dry conditions are expected off to the north of central tropical and south of central/eastern subtropical Pacific. The central and eastern equatorial Pacific is expected to be quite anomalously warm with near-normal rainfall. The chances of above-normal temperature over the whole Indian Ocean are very high, indicating more than 70%. Anomalously warm and dry conditions are also expected over most parts of the Maritime Continent extending into northern tip of Australia. Most of the continents in the northern and southern hemispheres would be anomalously warm. More notably, anomalously warm conditions are expected across parts of Africa, East Asia and southern Europe adjoining to the Mediterranean. In the Americas, the Caribbean is expected to be anomalously warm and dry. Northeastern South America may experience quite anomalously warm and dry conditions and much of North Africa is expected to receive near-normal rainfall.
2. Forecast for March - May 2015
For boreal spring 2015, warmer-than-normal conditions are expected to persist mainly in tropical/subtropical oceanic and land regions. With warm conditions in the equatorial Central/Eastern Pacific consistent with a developing El Niño, enhanced rainfall is expected in the central Pacific along with anomalously dry conditions in the neighboring off-equatorial regions. Much of the equatorial Indo-Pacific and South Pacific is expected to be warmer than normal. Anomalously warm conditions are expected to persist in most parts of Africa, East Asia, northern South America and the Maritime Continent. Below-normal rainfall is also expected in northern parts of South America. The subtropical West Pacific is expected to be anomalously dry during boreal late spring, while parts of the eastern tropical Pacific south of the equator are expected to receive slightly near-normal rainfall during the period.