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Monthly Outlook

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Climate Outlook for April - September 2015

 

BUSAN, 25 March 2015 – Synthesis of the latest model forecasts for April to September 2015 (AMJJAS) at the APEC Climate Center (APCC), located at Busan, Korea, indicates persistent positive temperature anomaly across the tropical Pacific consistent with the weak El Niño. The forecasts for AMJ 2015 show the positive temperature anomalies to prevail in the globe. Positive rainfall anomalies are expected in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, while negative anomalies prevailing over the maritime continent and Central America. The forecasts for JAS 2015 suggest persistence of the weak El Niño conditions with above-normal rainfall in the equatorial Central Pacific. Dry conditions may persist over the maritime continent and Central America.

 

 

 

Temperature and Precipitation Outlook:

 

1.       Forecast for April-June 2015

 

The APCC forecast indicates that the positive temperature anomalies will prevail over much of the globe, with the strongest anomalies being expected over western Eurasia and the eastern North Pacific. A warm pattern broadly spans the low-latitude southern hemisphere, affecting southern Africa, the Indian Ocean, Australia, the equatorial Pacific, and the southern South Pacific and South Atlantic. Negative temperature anomalies are expected in the northern North Atlantic and along the Antarctic coast. Some parts of subtropical Pacific may experience cold and dry conditions. Above normal precipitation is expected in the tropical central Pacific north of the equator and central Africa as well, while anomalously dry conditions are expected over the Maritime Continent and Central America.

Current Climate Conditions_img

Current Climate Conditions_img

 

2.       Forecast for July - September 2015

 

The wide spread positive temperature anomalies are expected to persist in many regions in the world, mainly the northern Siberia and North America. Warm anomalies of the Pacific and Indian Ocean and the low-latitude southern hemisphere are also expected to persist. The slight negative temperature anomalies are expected in the subtropical South Pacific. Associated with SST warming, enhanced rainfall is expected in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific accompanied by anomalously dry conditions for neighboring off-equatorial regions to the south and to the north. Anomalously dry conditions are also expected across the Maritime Continent, Indian Ocean, Central America, as well as much of the tropical Atlantic.

 

Current Climate Conditions_img

Current Climate Conditions_img

Deterministic MME Forecast

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MONTH VARIABLE REGION

Probabilistic MME Forecast

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MONTH VARIABLE REGION

Individual Model Predictions

Deterministic Forecast

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MONTH VARIABLE REGION MODEL