Climate Outlook for October 2015 - March 2016
BUSAN, 25 September 2015 – Synthesis of the latest model forecasts for October 2015 to March 2016 (ONDJFM) at the APEC Climate Center (APCC), located at Busan, Korea, indicates persistent positive temperature anomaly across the tropical Pacific consistent with the strengthening El Niño. The forecasts for OND 2015 show the positive temperature anomalies to prevail over the globe. Above normal rainfalls are highly probable in the equatorial Pacific, while below normal precipitation is expected over the eastern maritime continent and adjacent seas, Central and northern South Americas. The forecasts for JFM 2016 suggest persistence of the El Niño episode with a belt of above-normal rainfall in the equatorial Pacific surrounded by the areas of below normal precipitation.
Temperature and Precipitation Outlook:
1. Forecast for October-December 2015
The APCC forecast indicates that the positive temperature anomalies will continue to prevail over much of the globe. Strongly enhanced probability for above normal temperature is predicted for the eastern and central tropical Pacific, northern South America and the South Atlantic, the tropical North Atlantic, Africa and the Indian Ocean, southern Asia. Enhanced probability for above normal temperature is predicted for North America and Australia. A warm tendency is expected for Eurasia. Below normal temperature is highly probable over the northern North Atlantic, tropical and subtropical South Pacific, Weddell Sea. Strongly enhanced probability for above normal precipitation is predicted for the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Most likely category is above normal for precipitation over the eastern North Pacific and southern North America, extratropical South America, eastern Asia, most of the Indian and southern oceans. Strongly enhanced probability for below normal precipitation is predicted for the eastern part of maritime continent and adjacent seas, Central and northern South America. Below normal precipitation is also probable over the tropical Atlantic, tropical South Pacific, region around southern tip of South America.
2. Forecast for January - March 2016
The wide spread positive temperature anomalies predicted for OND are expected to persist. Above normal temperature is highly probable over the tropical Pacific, northern North and Southern Americas, tropical and subtropical Atlantic, Africa, Indian ocean and Australia. Probability for above normal temperature is slightly enhanced over southern Eurasia. Enhanced probability for below normal temperature is predicted for the northern North Atlantic, southern North America, central North and South Pacific. Probability of above normal precipitation is strongly enhanced for the equatorial Pacific and eastern subtropical North Atlantic. Above normal precipitation is also probable over Eurasia in the latitudinal belt from southern Europe through Manchuria, over the southern Indian ocean, eastern North Pacific, southern North America, and Canadian Archipelago. Strongly enhanced probability for below normal precipitation is predicted for the tropical and subtropical North and South Pacific, the Philippines and southern Indochina and Malay peninsulas, Amazonia and equatorial Atlantic. Probability for below normal precipitation is enhanced for the northern North Atlantic, southern Africa, Australia.