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Climate Outlook for June - November 2015

 

BUSAN, 26 May 2015 – Synthesis of the latest model forecasts for June to November 2015 (JJASON) at the APEC Climate Center (APCC), located at Busan, Korea, indicates persistent positive temperature anomaly across the tropical Pacific consistent with the developing El Niño. The forecasts for JJA 2015 show the positive temperature anomalies to prevail over the globe. Positive rainfall anomalies are expected in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, while negative anomalies prevailing over the Maritime Continent and Central America. The forecasts for SON 2015 suggest further development of the El Niño conditions with above-normal rainfall in the equatorial central Pacific and persisted dry conditions over the Maritime Continent and Central America.

 

 

 

Temperature and Precipitation Outlook:

 

1.       Forecast for June-August 2015

 

The APCC forecast indicates that the positive temperature anomalies will prevail over much of the globe, with the strongest anomalies being expected over the North Eurasia, western North America, the eastern North Pacific, and central to eastern equatorial Pacific. Warm conditions are also expected in some are of southern ocean basins. Negative temperature anomalies are expected to be confined in the northern and tropical North Atlantic, central subtropical North and South Pacific. Strong positive precipitation anomalies associated with developing El-Nino are highly probable in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, bordered by a horseshoe of strong negative precipitation anomalies over the Maritime Continent, south Asia, and subtropical North and South Pacific. Above normal precipitation is also expected over western Indian Ocean, western Australia, North and South Americas. A belt of the strong negative precipitation anomalies is expected to span the equatorial Atlantic from Central America through western Africa and great horn area. Whereas more rainfall is expected in central North Africa.

Current Climate Conditions_img

Current Climate Conditions_img

 

2.       Forecast for September - November 2015

 

The wide spread positive temperature anomalies predicted for JJA are expected to persist and enhance, with the northern Eurasia and North America anomalies enhancing and expanding through the Arctic, while eastern equatorial Pacific anomaly enhancing and expanding through the whole eastern equatorial and North Pacific. Enhancement of the positive anomalies is also expected in South Asia and Africa. The slight negative temperature anomalies are expected to persist in the subtropical south Pacific and North Atlantic. The large JJA precipitation anomaly patterns are expected to persist into SON, with the positive precipitation anomalies enhancing over the western Indian Ocean, Central Asia, and North America. Meanwhile, the negative precipitation anomalies are expected over south to Southeast Asia, Australia, Central America.

 

Current Climate Conditions_img

Current Climate Conditions_img

Deterministic MME Forecast

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MONTH VARIABLE REGION

Probabilistic MME Forecast

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Individual Model Predictions

Deterministic Forecast

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MONTH VARIABLE REGION MODEL