Climate Outlook for February - July 2015
BUSAN, 26 January 2015 – Synthesis of the latest model forecasts for February to July 2015 (FMAMJJ) at the APEC Climate Center (APCC), located at Busan, Korea, indicates warming across the continental areas in the northern hemisphere land and the tropical Pacific. The forecasts for FMA 2015 show an anomalously warm pattern persisting in the tropical/subtropical Pacific consistent with anomalously wet conditions. Anomalously dry conditions are expected over the Maritime Continent. Much of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean is also expected to receive below-normal rainfall. The forecasts for MJJ 2015 suggest El Niño neutral conditions with positive SST anomalies associated with above-normal rainfall across most of the equatorial Central Pacific. Dry conditions may persist in Central America. The subtropical West Pacific is expected to be anomalously dry during boreal spring 2015.
Temperature and Precipitation Outlook:
1. Forecast for February-April 2015
The APCC forecast indicates that the positive air temperature anomalies will prevail over the northern extratropics with an exception of the North Atlantic and Greenland. Anomalously warm will be the tropical Pacific, the Indian Ocean and the western North Atlantic. Negative temperature anomalies are expected in the subtropical western North Pacific, eastern North Atlantic, subtropical eastern South Pacific and southern seas. Above normal precipitation is probable in the southern Indian Ocean, western equatorial Pacific, south-western North America. Below normal precipitation is expected in the Maritime Continent, western North Pacific, equatorial Atlantic and Indian Oceans, eastern South Pacific, South Africa.
2. Forecast for May - July 2015
In the boreal late spring-summer 2015 the positive temperature anomalies are expected to prevail over the much of the tropical oceans in the northern hemisphere, with the highest temperature anomalies mostly probable over the tropical Pacific, Eurasia and North America. Above normal precipitation is expected in the equatorial and northern tropical Pacific. Meanwhile, below normal precipitation is expected to persist over the maritime continent, Central America and equatorial Atlantic.