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Climate Outlook for September - November 2013

 

 

BUSAN, 26 August 2013 – Synthesis of the latest model forecasts for September-to-November 2013 (SON) at the APEC Climate Center (APCC), located at Busan, Korea, suggests a further continuing ENSO-neutral condition, with below normal temperature in the eastern tropical Pacific and above normal temperature in the western tropical Pacific. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole condition is favored in the boreal fall. The North East Asian regions may experience drier and warmer than normal conditions. The southern Indian region is expected to receive below normal rainfall and experience warm temperature. Western North America regions may see warm conditions.

 

 

 

Forecast

 

 

 

Temperature and Precipitation Outlook:

 

Warm conditions are expected to prevail in a broad horse-shaped region in the tropical western Pacific west of the dateline, covering several Polynesian islands. The maritime continent may expect wetter than normal condition. A broad region around the tropical and subtropical Indian Ocean covering Australia may experience near normal temperatures.

 

The North East Asian regions may experience drier and warmer than normal conditions. The southern Indian region is expected to receive below normal rainfall and experience warm temperature. The Middle East, Mediterranean and Eastern Europe may experience slightly warm than normal conditions during the forecast period.

 

Colder-than-normal conditions may be seen in the eastern Pacific. Western North America regions may see warm conditions. The equatorial America and northern South America may be anomalously wet.

 

 

 

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Deterministic MME Forecast

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MONTH VARIABLE REGION

Probabilistic MME Forecast

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MONTH VARIABLE REGION

Individual Model Predictions

Deterministic Forecast

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VARIABLE TYPE MONTH
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MODEL REGION