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Seasonal Outlook

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The APEC CLIMATE CENTER
 
Climate Outlook for Sep 2013-Feb 2014
based on 6-month 1-tier MME Forecasts1
 
Highlights
 
- Anomalously wet conditions are expected in the western tropical Pacific Oceans, most part of maritime continent, and eastern tropical Indian Ocean. On the other hand, the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, and the western tropical Indian Ocean will likely experience below normal rainfall during SON. During winter, slightly dry (wet) conditions are expected in the western tropical Indian Ocean, northwestern Atlantic Ocean and the western equatorial Pacific Ocean (most part of maritime continent and the eastern tropical Indian Ocean).
 
- Anomalous cooling (warming) of temperature at 850 hPa is foreseen in the vicinity of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (western tropical Pacific Ocean, most part of maritime continent, western part of the North America and eastern equatorial Indian Ocean) during SON. During winter, anomalous warm (cold) conditions are expected in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean, most part of maritime continent, the western equatorial Pacific Ocean, the New Zealand, central equatorial Africa, and most part of the Mexico (Mongolia, East Asia, the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, and most of the Canada).
 
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1 The forecast was performed with initial conditions of August 2013 with lead time of 1-6 months.
 
 
Sep-Nov 2013 forecast
 
During the period from September-November 2013, SST forecast from the APCC 1-6 month lead coupled MME prediction indicates near-neutral ENSO conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean. A negative IOD-like pattern in the precipitation will likely continue for the coming several months over the tropical Indian Ocean. It is likely that the Philippine Sea, South China Sea and western tropical Pacific Ocean will experience anomalously warm and wet conditions, while the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean will show slightly drier and cooler than normal conditions. It can be noted that slightly warm and wet signals will likely occur in most part of maritime continent and eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. It is likely that the western tropical Indian Ocean will experience anomalously dry conditions. There is a strong probability of a warm signal over most portion of Southeast Asian region, equatorial Africa, Madagascar, western part of the North America, and central North Pacific Ocean. Anomalously wet conditions are expected over the equatorial Central America and northern South America.

Current Climate Conditions_img

Current Climate Conditions_img

Dec 2013-Feb 2014 forecast
 
The SST forecast shows a slight weakening of the cold signal in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean from December 2013 through February 2014. The eastern tropical Indian Ocean, most part of maritime continent, some of the southeastern portions of Africa, and Madagascar will likely experience slightly warmer and wetter than normal conditions. Anomalously warm and dry conditions are expected over the western tropical Indian Ocean, northwestern Atlantic Ocean and the western equatorial Pacific Ocean. Anomalously warm conditions may prevail in the New Zealand, central equatorial Africa, southern part of South America, southern United States, and most part of the Mexico. It is likely that cold signals occur in the vicinity of Mongolia, northeastern part of China, the Korean peninsula, the Japanese Archipelago, the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, and most of the Canada.

Current Climate Conditions_img

Current Climate Conditions_img

Deterministic MME Forecast

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MONTH VARIABLE REGION

Probabilistic MME Forecast

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MONTH VARIABLE REGION

Individual Model Predictions

Deterministic Forecast

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MONTH VARIABLE REGION MODEL