The APEC CLIMATE CENTER
Climate Outlook for Jun-Nov 2013
based on 6-month 1-tier MME Forecasts1
Highlights
- Slightly above (below) normal rainfall is expected in the Philippine Sea, western tropical Pacific Ocean, and most part of mainland Southeast Asia including maritime continent (central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, the central equatorial Indian Ocean, southern ocean of Japan, southern portion of South America) during summer. During SON, slightly dry (wet) conditions are expected in the central tropical Indian Ocean, western and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean (mainland Southeast Asia, most of maritime continent, the vicinity of the Bay of Bengal, and some parts of Indian subcontinent).
- Anomalous warming (cooling) of temperature at 850 hPa is foreseen in most of the tropical Indian Ocean, western tropical Pacific Ocean, most of East Asia, mainland Southeast Asia, maritime continent, and most of United States (central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, some part of Indian subcontinent) during JJA. During fall, anomalous warm conditions are expected in most of the tropical Ocean excluding the central equatorial Pacific Ocean, most of East Asia, maritime continent, tropical Central America, and northern and southern portion of South America.
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1 The forecast was performed with initial conditions of May 2013 with lead time of 1-6 months.
Jun-Aug 2013 forecast
During the period from June-August 2013, SST forecast from the APCC 1-6 month lead coupled MME prediction indicates near-neutral conditions in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It is likely that the Philippine Sea and western tropical Pacific Ocean will experience anomalously warm and wet conditions while the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean will show slightly drier and colder than normal conditions. Anomalously warm and dry conditions are expected over the central equatorial Indian Ocean, some parts of South China Sea, most of East China Sea, southern ocean of Japan, northwestern part of United States, southern portion of Brazil and most of Argentina. The probabilities of warmer and wetter conditions are shown over most parts of mainland Southeast Asia and maritime continent, tropical Central America, western part of Mexico, most of North Korea, some part of northeastern China, some portion of Australian continent and some part of eastern tropical Indian Ocean.
The SST forecast shows a gradual weakening of the cold signal in the tropical Pacific Ocean during September-November 2013. The central tropical Indian Ocean, western and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, southern ocean of Japan including Japanese Archipelago will likely experience slightly warmer and drier than normal conditions. Anomalously warm and wet conditions are expected over eastern parts of Indonesia, most portion of mainland Southeast Asia, most of maritime continent including Philippine Islands, the vicinity of the Bay of Bengal, and some parts of Indian subcontinent. It is likely that warm signals will occur in most part of Mexico, tropical Central America, southern part of the South America, southern parts of Africa, western and eastern portion of China, and western part of South Pacific Ocean including New Zealand.
