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Produce & Provide Reliable Climate Prediction Information
When APCC was established, its mission was to contribute to the Asia-Pacific region through climate prediction. Therefore, climate prediction was the first research topic at APCC, and it has continuously been the main focus of APCC’s research since then.
The Climate Prediction Team predicts extreme weather and climate phenomena and also works on developing their prediction techniques. By utilizing the most advanced prediction techniques in the climate science field, the team’s first priority is to produce high credibility climate prediction information.TOP
The “Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) technique” is the technique used by APCC to determine the future 6 month global climate forecast. This technique produces the most accurate results by collecting, standardizing, and then utilizing climate prediction data from 17 different climate prediction organizations from all around the world. This technique is based on research that concluded that collating data from different high quality climate models results in a better forecast than each climate model’s independent forecast.
We understand that decision-making models that utilize forecast information exist, due to our observed demand for future 6 month global climate forecasts. Because of the practical application of these forecasts, they need to be comprehensible for actual decision-makers.
For this reason, when APCC provides forecasts, they are accompanied with an explanation formatted in a similar way to story-telling. However, the results of a simple model cannot provide enough information to provide a proper narrative. For example, questions such as, “What is the reason for various climate phenomena?” and “Which climate construction caused the phenomena?”, require the reinterpretation of data. In other words, the Climate Prediction Team plays a key role by producing more accurate climate prediction information that makes it easier to interpret and create the necessary narrative to be provided to decision-makers.TOP
Reliable and high quality prediction information cannot be produced at a moment’s notice. Since 2006, when the first prediction information was produced, APCC has continued to conduct seasonal forecasts. Now, APCC is able to declare that its seasonal forecasts have become world-class level forecasts. This achievement was made possible due to APCC’s natural way of absorbing partner organizations’ technical skills into its climate prediction system.
As even the most current science techniques are not without their limitations, we cannot say with 100% confidence that climate prediction information is accurate enough to base decisions on. However, even with the potential inaccuracies of forecast information, it is obvious that it can be helpful for decision-making and applications to policy.
There are few organizations, aside from APCC, that produce long-term forecast information. The Climate Prediction Team has a long-term vision to produce the most reliable forecast information until it becomes the best in the world in the climate prediction field. Also, the team will produce and develop forecast information in a way that illustrates the close connections between climate information and decision-making, so that users can acknowledge the value of applying the available information even with its potential inaccuracies.TOP